Putin and the West

[D41]

Would NATO be better off with Ukraine on board....??

[Monty]

I think he's **** up, I think this is what you get when the turd rises to the top, utter incompetency at every level, a bit like our clown's cabinet. Say what you will about our recent invasions, and I do, but the reality was they were led by incredible military minds, with possibly the best and certainly the most professional soldiers to ever exist.

Not something to be proud of, but we would have turned Ukrain over in less than a week. As would pretty much any other NATO state.

[Cav]

What's the latest from Twitter, Kwacky? I'm not on there to see the stuff you see.

[D41]

Not something to be proud of, but we would have turned Ukrain over in less than a week. As would pretty much any other NATO state.

I dunno.... Ukraine has the second largest standing army in Europe.... plus a fcuk-ton of reservists, AND they're fighting on their own turf. It's probably not as easy as it might seem.

[Monty]

Not something to be proud of, but we would have turned Ukrain over in less than a week. As would pretty much any other NATO state.

I dunno.... Ukraine has the second largest standing army in Europe.... plus a fcuk-ton of reservists, AND they're fighting on their own turf. It's probably not as easy as it might seem.

Yeah, I'm sure it's not that easy, and I am being very flippant, but we wouldn't have fought that kind of war with them. Saddam literally had one of the largest land armies in the world, and they were obliterated within weeks.

In the first days, their SAM sites would be gone and all their aircraft forced underground. Within a few more their command and control would be gone, taken out with bunker busters and cruise missiles. Any form of tank battle after that would be a turkey shoot.

This is one of the reasons I can't understand why Putin hasn't maintained air superiority, surely he could. And surely it would make a massive difference on the ground.

[Kwacky]

What's the latest from Twitter, Kwacky? I'm not on there to see the stuff you see.

It's a bit grim today. There's been lots of shelling and rocket attacks from the Russians. A couple of big cities are heavily damaged. There's plenty of imagines of killed and wounded civilians.

The strike at the recruitment centre near Lviv killed a lot of foreign fighters. At least 200 KIA or wounded.

A lot of civilians managed to flee Mariupol today. It looks like the Russians have respected a safe corridor. That city is getting pounded.

Both sides say that the ongoing talks have been progressive but there's no sign of a ceasefire and Russia is still moving troops in to Ukraine.

[Kwacky]

This is one of the reasons I can't understand why Putin hasn't maintained air superiority, surely he could. And surely it would make a massive difference on the ground.

They're flying sorties, about 10 times the number of Ukraine, but they're being flown in taken areas or launching attacks at distance. Anything that is going up tends to be the older craft, like SU-24s.

The recurring theme I'm reading is communication failure. The commanders are staying back so they're losing contact with those at the front. They're resorting to using different bands or mobile phones. I don't know if they're real but I've seen videos of intercepted communications.

Poor servicing is another issue. There's a lot of expensive hardware left in the field with crap tyres. There's loads of photos of failed tyres. These vehicles have been parked up somewhere and left.

Another issue is soldier type. There's a fair mix of age, experienced and training on show. All of the serious forces appear to be in the south/east regions. There appears to be a lack of mixing of troops - I would have thought you would want some old and hardened soldiers in with the newbies to guide them and give them a bit of courage. Plus Russian appears to have boosted its numbers using riot police (I kid you not). I'm guessing these were sent to take over towns and villages the Russians took, but they've been in the front line rather than coming through in support.

[Kwacky]

Russian naval vessels have sailed to Berdyansk. It's not far from Mariupol which has been under siege for about 10 days. There's a fear that the city is going to be shelled from the sea as well as land and air.

Three times the Russians have prevented humanitarian aid from going in to the city.

It's going to be pretty desperate in their. They've got no running water, fuel, gas or electricity

It's not the first time Russians have starved Ukrainians.

[Tuffers]

Yep, Russians keep shelling while talks go on just to try and force Ukrainian hands. It's so hard to see the pictures of these bombed towns. There's a video on Twitter where 2 Russian soldiers are holding back a protesting crowd. Just fecking jump the b@stards. Why aren't we seeing pictures of Ukrainian people overwhelming Russian soldiers? Why aren't the Ukrainian army in these towns shooting the Russian soldiers that are holding the protestors back? Why aren't the crowds hurling Molotov cocktails at the Russians? Will Molotovs be used? To me from what I've seen it looks like the Russians rock up in to town and the locals treat them like riot police and not some b@stard who's after your country. It's not adding up to me.

[Kwacky]

I don't think lobbing petrol bombs at Russians is going to make things any better. A lot of Ukrainians believe the Russians will be sent home shortly. If the public/UA army start attacking in public places there's only thing to be one outcome.

[Cav]

Great stuff, Kwacky. As for the riot police, there was a video interview a week back with 3 captured "soldiers" that were Police. They were told they were training and convoyed to Belarus. Days later they were given agendas telling them they're going into Ukraine and would be welcomed with open arms, they were immediately told to load up and convoy out. They had no time to process or ask questions. As the Police, they have no legal authority in Ukraine and as such, any Police officer in Ukraine who isn't acting as a civilian is breaking the law.

[Kwacky]

US officials estimate that Russia has had 6,000 to 8,000 soldiers KIA.

Ukraine says 12,000 soldiers (including 3 high level generals) 80 aircraft, 100 helicopters and 1000 combat vehicles.

I'm sceptical about the losses to helicopters/aircraft. I've seen a few videos and photos of downed craft but nothing to support those numbers.

Figures for Ukraine losses are harder to find. Probably because those who fall end in Russian territory.

[Cav]

I know the US are giving Ukraine LOADS of Javelins and Stingers so to be fair, against old air craft and running 200 sorties a day as the Russians claim, those numbers are achievable and probably why Russia doesn't have air superiority, due to being unable to deter stinger missiles.

[Kwacky]

https://twitter.com/no_itsmyturn/status ... uu7Mw&s=19" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just a small glimpse of the destruction caused in one town.

[D41]

Ukraine says 12,000 soldiers (including 3 high level generals) 80 aircraft, 100 helicopters and 1000 combat vehicles.

I'm sceptical about the losses to helicopters/aircraft. I've seen a few videos and photos of downed craft but nothing to support those numbers.

Yes.... I'd be very skeptical too about any numbers thrown around about casualties/kills, etc. in an active war zone - @ 80 years later and many of those sort of figures touted regarding WW2 losses are merely best guesstimates..... and they're nearly always high.

[Kwacky]

It looks like those navy vessels I mentioned yesterday are heading towards Odessa.

Odessa is very heavily defended. As much as the Russians can shell the place they'll still need to send troops in.

Reports from Mariupol claim that the Russians have taken main hospital and are keeping staff and patients hostage. The claims include allegations that the russians are using the hospital to snipe at Ukrainian defenders. The Russians are also accused of shooting at anyone trying to leave the hospital.

[Kwacky]

I forgot to mention that Russia has form for this in Syria. In fact, a lot of what Russia is doing in Ukraine is similar to how they have acted in Syria. They carried on shelling hospitals even after they were given the coordinates for them so there was no excuse for accidental attacks.

[Cav]

It is still possible that Russia are sandbagging a bit? If they were expecting NATO to retaliate they'd have been best off to retain their best troops and weapons for that war and not the invasion of Ukraine.

This isn't me saying that's what they've done but is it possible? Not sure.

[D41]

I think you'd send in whoever gets the results you want... the best you have available - within reason.

[Tuffers]

I wonder if these talks will come to a conclusion. If Ukraine give Russia anything at all for what price? A country that's in ruins and all the unnecessary deaths. The population will never forget that's for sure. Russia have financially fecked up for decades to come. Will Russia back down? I think not.