Putin and the West

[Kwacky]

Russia has admitted to "relocating" 200,000 Ukrainian children to Russian families.

[Kwacky]

Ukraine reckon they've lost about 20% of their country to Russia so far

[Kwacky]

There's not much to report. Both sides are exchanging rockets and shells. Fighting in the east has become bogged down. There's issues with morale on both sides of this front.

Some 5m people have left Ukraine. Germany has got an express system to get them registered. Bulgaria has stuck most of their Ukraine refugees into camps.

The main rumour is that Russia has moved a lot of troops and hardware into Crimea. Reports are talking about 150,000 men. This is probably the push in to Kherson then on to Odessa to seal off Ukraine from the Black Sea.

Ukraine has today launched an attack on the Russian oil drilling facilities in the Black Sea. I expect we'll start to see more attacks of this nature as the war progresses. Ukraine is running out of weapons, so it needs to start looking at other options to slow down the Russian effort.

[Kwacky]

Ukraine has today launched an attack on the Russian oil drilling facilities in the Black Sea. I expect we'll start to see more attacks of this nature as the war progresses. Ukraine is running out of weapons, so it needs to start looking at other options to slow down the Russian effort.

There's also reports coming in of a Russian ammunition dump being hit in the occupied Donetsk region. The photos suggest it was a successful attack.

[Kwacky]

Turkey has come to all agreement which will allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO.

The agreement is probably related to arms sales. Sweden is very well respected for some of the stuff it produces.

[D41]

You'd think Turkey would appreciate Finland & Sweden's position (literally!) more than anyone else.

[Kwacky]

This is long for a Twitter thread but well worth a read

https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status ... dAtzg&s=19" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's part of the reason why the UK and the USA have been pally with the Saudis recently.

[Kwacky]

Chechin separatists have announced a war against Russia and the Chechens fighting for Russia in Ukraine.

[StMarks]

Chechin separatists have announced a war against Russia and the Chechens fighting for Russia in Ukraine.

An apt reminder that ; Your enemy's enemy isn't necessarily your friend.

Isn't Vlad using as many sub-contracted troops as possible, so that the losses reported to the Russian can be restricted to Russian soldiers only. That way the appearance is that the campaign is progressing smoothly without too much loss on their side.?

[Kwacky]

They are.

Plus it makes it easier for Russia to try and wash their hands of any war crimes if they're committed by other troops.

[D41]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... diers/amp/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

....worth a read - it perhaps offers some perspective on why Russia is recruiting outside help.

[Kwacky]

It's a decent article but it's from March so there's a lot of dated information.

Russia's killed are anywhere between 15,000 to 36,000. Wounded and MIA are usually 3 times that.

US and UK intelligence reckon Russia has used half of its stockpile of artillery shells.

Ukraine soldiers have found uniforms from Russia's Pacific troops, the ones used to defend the Japanese Islands they captured during WW2.

What I'm reading at the moment is that Russia has put the offensive on pause. Putin really wants to seize a couple of cities in the East, but he's shit scared of a Ukraine counteroffensive in the South

Us supplied HIMAS are really helping as they've got a 70km range and are very accurate. They've been taking out ammunition dumps, forcing Russia to move stockpiles further back from the front.

Ukraine has lost a lot of experienced fighters. However, they've got a few thousand men due to return in the coming weeks from overseas training.

[D41]

Ukraine soldiers have found uniforms from Russia's Pacific troops, the ones used to defend the Japanese Islands they captured during WW2.

Yeah..... that's a little known footnote - at least in The West - to WW2.... the USSR kinda declared war on Japan at the last minute. Took a few islands and part of Kamchatka, redrew the border with China a little bit, if memory serves - whether by military action or not, I can't remember??
I think they might have even restarted a war they had with China before WW2 began?? Seems to ring a bell.

[Monty]

There are two main things that can very easily lose you a war, low morale and poor logistics. Russia has both, and I just hope Ukraine can hold out long enough.

My worry is he might consider using tactical nuclear weapons on the ground if he thinks he can't win. He's got around 2000 one-kiloton bombs he can launch from air, ground or sea and hit anywhere in Ukraine. For scale, Hiroshima was 15 kilotons

[D41]

The Kuril Islands!!!!
......I had to look it up, it was bugging me.

[duke63]

There are two main things that can very easily lose you a war, low morale and poor logistics. Russia has both, and I just hope Ukraine can hold out long enough.

My worry is he might consider using tactical nuclear weapons on the ground if he thinks he can't win. He's got around 2000 one-kiloton bombs he can launch from air, ground or sea and hit anywhere in Ukraine. For scale, Hiroshima was 15 kilotons

Very dangerous close to his own border I would have thought. Plus it negates all the gains they have made in Ukraine so far if it becomes a nuclear wasteland.

That said political leaders do desperate and stupid things when backed into a corner.

[D41]

It is worth remembering however, that it was Putin himself - or the govt. think-tank he headed/worked for, that came up with a whole strategy/concept based around the 'escalate to de-escalate' theory.
That would suggest that his whole "Remember we have nuclear weapons"-spiel is nothing but a bluff. And so far it's working. It'd also at least partially explain why he was so keen to up the ante a bit by throwing a statement like that out on the table.

[duke63]

He must realise that were he to use the nuclear option it would give NATO the reason to wipe Russia’s main cities off the planet.

[D41]

You mean like Stalingrad??

[Kwacky]

Russia's main aim at the moment is steal as much grain and resources from the occupied areas to help feed itself and to pay for the war. Using nukes will put a stop to that.