Perkles wrote:My point is why delay exposure to the majority who wont be a burden to the NHS and only develop mild illness and be able to carry on or self treat. We need to protect the high risk groups not everyone.
Blade thats what isolation is for, the people with mild symptoms will pass it on ,what dont you understand about that ?
We need to smooth out the peak, isolation will help with this
Italy is falling apart because they didnt isolate quick enough ,China did now they have it under control
How can the people with mild symptoms pass it on to high risk people, if the high risk people are in isolation? Which is what I've suggested doing.
Genuine question are people reading all of my comments or just selective bits?
People with mild symptoms dont add to the peak as no burden to NHS if they self treat for mild symptoms. They are not taking up critical hospital beds or resouces. Yes they risk passing the virus on, but only to other low risk groups who are not in isolation (remeber high risk groups are in isolation). These other low risk people will also only develop mild systems, not burden the NHS and be able to self treat at home.
The high risk people who are isolating have to be cared for, looked after visited busy others. If everyone else is out there just going about their business, not caring whether they get it or not, and the people who are looking after the high risk people catch it/carry it, they then pass it on to the high risk people, or become unable to carry out the caring.
TriumphFan wrote:The high risk people who are isolating have to be cared for, looked after visited busy others. If everyone else is out there just going about their business, not caring whether they get it or not, and the people who are looking after the high risk people catch it/carry it, they then pass it on to the high risk people, or become unable to carry out the caring.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Some high risk people would need care yes I agree, as in those with current medical issues but people who are classed as high risk due to age but otherwise healthy would not need care and none of the above have to have visitors for social reasons only for genuine care needs.
I get your catch 22 scenario, but that exists for the thousands who die each year from seasonal flu so how do we care for them, when there carers are potentially infected with seasonal flu but not showing symptoms.? There is not a perfect solution.
I've offered my personal view. Happy others disagree but going to have to stop now. Ironically as a critical worker I'm not doing my job due to arguing on the web
Plenty of heathy people not deemed at high risk are getting more than a mild dose Blade, it’s smashing plenty. Over half the beds in Australian ICU’s are younger seeming healthy people.
Even your proposal is flawed. When do we let the high risk out of isolation?? If you just let the greater population get it, it will hang around for a long time. We still aren’t 100% you can’t ever-infected. There’s data on both sides of that fence.
The virus needs to be transported to survive. We need to cut off its travel. As Perkles points out, China seems to have controlled it with that concept and Italy have suffered for not locking down soon enough.
I know I won’t change your mind, but I’m going to have to disagree with you on this.
Happiness is not a destination. It is a way of life.
China had a strict isolation period it's now under control ,Italy didnt it's not under control and the death toll is rising
I fail to understand why you cant see the clues here ?
I ve never said dont have strict controls. What I've suggested is the strict controls are limited to the groups of people likely to burden the NHS as the whole point is to slow the rate of critically ill people down so as not to overload the system. My motive is not to allow the majority more social freedom it's to achieve a low impact to the NHS but also minimise impact on future employment and continue the youths education. Not selfish means as was suggested earlier.
At some point whether we isolated everyone or just the high risk groups, all people will be exposed. We are just trying to drip feed that flow of critically ill casualties to allow the limited resources to cope. We cant hide forever and the government is not trying to. I believe goverment policy is solely aimed at limiting the immediate impact to the NHS, and I believe my scenario achieves this, but with the added benefit of a reduced impact to jobs the economy and the youths education, all important considerations that effect the whole population.
If people selectively read my posts we could argue till the cows come home, but it achieves nothing and we go round and round in circles getting more and more frustrated.
I'm happy to agree to disagree. We can have different opinions without the need to argue who's is right.
Last edited by Blade on 21 Mar 2020, 14:22, edited 3 times in total.
More than fine with that guys. I think my idea is credible if others dont I'm ok with that, doesnt mean im wrong just the majority believe differently.
More than one way to skin a cat and achieve a similar result . My personal view is I would achieve a similar low impact to the NHS but keep the kids in education, and reduce the risk of jobs losses.
Last edited by Blade on 21 Mar 2020, 14:35, edited 2 times in total.
At some point I think there may well be a testing facility to see who has it or even who has already had it, then some sense of normality may return. But until then we have to carry on under the Govt guidelines.
The fact they are prepared to subsidise staff wages to 80% for three months, should reduce the impact in the economy as there is no reason to lay off employees.
On a lighter note, it’s lovely and quiet outside, the sun is shining and I have been doing some gardening. Maybe we all need to lead simpler lives.
And this is why places are being shut down. From a critical care Doctor at Coventry University Hospital and a friend of a one time member on here.
Why do we need to shut places where people group?
Remember this: VIRAL LOAD
There will be a lot about this. Why is it important?
With this virus, the amount of virus in your blood at first infection directly relates to the severity of the illness you will suffer. This isn’t unusual - HIV management is all about reducing viral load to keep people alive longer. BUT it’s very important in COVID-19.
So if you are in, say, a pub or religious building or entertainment venue with 200 people and a large number don’t have symptoms but are shedding, you are breathing in lots of droplets per minute and absorbing a high load of the virus. In a crowded space. They become ill over the next 48 hours. You then three days later wonder why you can’t breathe and end up in hospital. You’d decided because you were young and healthy it wasn’t going to be a problem. Wrong.
Fortunately but unfortunately because the elderly are isolating quite well, the initial UK data suggests that all age groups above 20 are almost equally represented in ITUs in England. Most of the cases are in London but the wave is moving outwards.
This means that being under 60 and fit and well doesn’t seem to be as protective as we thought. Why? Viral load.
This may be skewed simply by the fact that too many Londoners didn’t do as asked and congregated in large groups in confined spaces and got a large initial viral load. They then went home and infected their wider families. Which is why, as London is overwhelmed, we need to shut everything down to save the rest of the UK. We are a week at most behind London.
Our sympathies go out to the families affected in London and the critical care teams battling right now to save as many as they can.
If I sit with one person and catch this virus, I get a small viral load. My immune system will start to fight it and by the time the virus starts replicating, I’m ready to kill it.
No medicines will help this process meaningfully hence there is no “cure” for this virus. All we can do is support you with a ventilator and hope your immune system can catch up fast enough.
If I sit in the same room with six people, all shedding I get six times the initial dose. The rise in viral load is faster than my immune system can cope with and it is overrun. I then become critically ill and need me (or someone of my specialty) to fix it instead of just being at home and being ok in the end.
THIS BIT IS IMPORTANT:
If you are a large family group, remember that by being ill and in the same room, you will make each other ill or “more ill”. If you get sick, isolate just yourself to one room and stay there. Don’t all sit in one room coughing. You will increase the viral load for all of you, reducing your survival rate.
A family of six people may produce double the droplets of a family of three in the same space. Maths is important.
If one of you is symptomatic, assume you are all shedding and make sure you keep some space.
Parents are getting it from their kids because no one is going to stop comforting their child (nor should they) so the parent gets a big hit as well as the child. I don’t think that can be helped.
REMEMBER: THINK ABOUT VIRAL LOAD
It could save your life or your child’s.
Coventry and Warwickshire - it’s up to you now. We are preparing for the worst but we are hoping for the best from you. Please help us to help you. Stay home and take this seriously now before we need the army on the streets to remind you. Yes I’m serious.
duke63 wrote:On a lighter note, it’s lovely and quiet outside, the sun is shining and I have been doing some gardening. Maybe we all need to lead simpler lives.
Been out for a 13 mile trail run this morning, aiming on bring fairly isolated. How wrong I was. So many people out walking, running, and smiling. Many happy saying hello, at a distance obviously. Maybe a positive change is being seen already?
Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
You never really learn to swear until you learn to drive.
If everything seems under control, you're not going fast enough - Mario Andretti
duke63 wrote:At some point I think there may well be a testing facility to see who has it or even who has already had it, then some sense of normality may return. But until then we have to carry on under the Govt guidelines.
The fact they are prepared to subsidise staff wages to 80% for three months, should reduce the impact in the economy as there is no reason to lay off employees.
On a lighter note, it’s lovely and quiet outside, the sun is shining and I have been doing some gardening. Maybe we all need to lead simpler lives.
duke63 wrote:On a lighter note, it’s lovely and quiet outside, the sun is shining and I have been doing some gardening. Maybe we all need to lead simpler lives.
Been out for a 13 mile trail run this morning, aiming on bring fairly isolated. How wrong I was. So many people out walking, running, and smiling. Many happy saying hello, at a distance obviously. Maybe a positive change is being seen already?
Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
This is my big hope that some people realise what's important rather than chasing money and the next greatest toy or possession.
